Supply-Demand Tight Balance Intensifies, Ample Upward Momentum for Petroleum Coke in the Short Term [SMM Analysis]

SMM News on October 31:

This week, the petroleum coke market saw continued active trading, with smooth shipments from refineries and strong purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors, leading to a broad-based price increase. For major refineries, CNOOC's refineries witnessed active participation in bidding, with petroleum coke prices rising significantly by 150-600 yuan/mt, and current prices concentrated in the range of 4,200-4,700 yuan/mt. Notably, Zhoushan Petrochemical is expected to undergo maintenance, and affected by supply reduction, its price rose 600 yuan/mt WoW. PetroChina's refineries in north-east China experienced tightening low-sulphur petroleum coke supply, with good shipment performance; prices remained largely stable WoW, and current petroleum coke prices are concentrated at 3,846-4,410 yuan/mt. Additionally, Dagang Petrochemical in north China raised its petroleum coke price by 180 yuan/mt WoW to 4,330 yuan/mt. According to SMM, petroleum coke prices in north-east China are still expected to rise, with Fushun Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Jinxi Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical projected to increase prices by 100-200 yuan/mt starting November 1. Sinopec focused on volume shipments WoW, with petroleum coke prices rising slightly within 100 yuan/mt. For local refineries, daytime trading activity was strong, and petroleum coke prices continued to climb. As of today, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries was about 2,918 yuan/mt, up 5% WoW from last Friday.

For imported coke, driven by continuous domestic price increases and strong downstream purchasing enthusiasm, imported coke prices also rose. Port shipment pace accelerated, inventory continued to decline, and traders, after smooth shipments, showed strong bullish sentiment and reluctance to sell, leading to limited spot cargo sales at ports, with the market dominated by small-lot transactions.

Supply side, the tightening trend in the petroleum coke market intensified WoW, with an increase in the number of enterprises under maintenance among both major and local refineries: among major refineries, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Luoyang Petrochemical remained under maintenance, while Yunnan Petrochemical newly joined the maintenance list WoW; among local refineries, two units—Lanjiao Petrochemical and Tianhong Petrochemical—were newly shut down for maintenance. Coupled with production declines at some enterprises, domestic petroleum coke supply further contracted, supporting price increases.

Demand side, prebaked anode enterprises maintained good operating rates, and recent new capacity additions brought some incremental demand; calcined petroleum coke enterprises saw product prices rise due to raw material cost pass-through, with moderate shipment performance; the negative electrode material market had sufficient downstream orders. Multiple downstream sectors contributed to demand growth, effectively absorbing the market impact of supply contraction. Additionally, as winter stockpiling commenced in north-west China approaching winter, petroleum coke demand increased further.

Overall, the petroleum coke market currently shows a pattern of tightening supply and increasing demand. At the month-end to early-month period, restocking needs for some enterprises became prominent. Coupled with expectations of higher prebaked anode prices in November boosting purchasing enthusiasm, SMM expects upward momentum for petroleum coke prices to persist in the short term.